“A computer is like an Old Testament god, with a lot of rules and no mercy”

Monday, February 8

Allow Me to Rebut

...or, I don't think so, Bubba.

  • By 2012, 20% percent of businesses will have no ownership of IT assets. Fueled by technological developments in 2009, such as virtualization and cloud computing, there’s a movement toward decreased IT hardware assets and more ownership of hardware by third parties.
Companies like to own thier data.  While I see them using 3rd parties to hold off-site data, I don't see them giving up this level of control. 
  • By 2012, India-based IT companies will represent 20% of cloud service providers in the market. Gartner attributes this to companies leveraging their market positions and R&D efforts in cloud computing, resulting in cloud-enabled outsourcing options.
I'm just getting started researching Cloud computing for a paper, so I'm not certain on this.  No real opinion right now.
  • By 2012, Facebook will lead the pack in developing the distributed, interoperable social Web through Facebook Connect and similar mechanisms. The interoperability will be critical to survival of other social networks.
Well, they've got this one.  If no one comes out of no where, Facebook is the team.  We're already seeing signs that they're going to launch thier own web-mail, and the signs are good they'll continue to innovate to keep their market share (unlike MySpace).
  • Other social networks (including Twitter) will continue to develop with focus on greater adoption and specialization. However, they will all revolve around Facebook.
I think we'll see Twitter branching off into other fields, but yeah, I can see this.
  • By 2014, building on server vitalization and desktop power management as savings in energy costs, more organizations will be driven by the need to be responsible for carbon dioxide emissions and will include carbon costs in business cases. Vendors will have to provide carbon lifecycle statistics for their products.
I see vendors and really big shops worrying about this.  Most businesses do not fall into these categories and generally could care less.
  • In 2012, 60% of a new PCs total life greenhouse gas emissions will have occurred before the user first turns it on. In its lifetime, a typical PC consumes 10 times its own weight in fossil fuels, but around 80% of a PC’s total energy usage occurs during production and transportation. Buyers will be paying more attention to eco labels.
Ditto my answer from above.  No one cares.
  • Online marketing by 2015 will control more than US$ 250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
It's a good possibility, but then again, this seems fairly obvious.  People like shopping online.
  • By 2014, mobile and Internet technology will help over 3 billion of the world’s adults to electronically transact. Emerging economies will see increase in mobile and Internet adoption through 2014. Worldwide mobile penetration rate will get to 90%.
  • By 2013, mobile phones will replace PCs as the most common device for Web access.
These two go hand-in-hand, so I'll address them together.  OK, this is again a no-brainer.  This is merely continuing a trend that has been occurring for almost a decade.

So, no new real predictions here.